Quantum Computers Could Crack RSA Encryption Sooner Than Expected
New research suggests that quantum computers might be able to break RSA encryption using only 1 million qubits. That is a significant reduction from earlier estimates and could mean we are closer to a quantum threat than many thought.
Experts from Google Quantum AI are now pushing for faster adoption of next-generation cryptography. They recommend that systems relying on vulnerable encryption methods be phased out by 2030 and completely discontinued by 2035.
Across the tech industry, many companies are already preparing for a post-quantum world. Microsoft has recently updated Windows 11 with protections against quantum threats. Major VPN providers and secure email platforms have also begun switching to quantum-resistant encryption.
Quantum Breakthrough
Encryption is what keeps digital communication private. It transforms data into unreadable code that can only be deciphered with the right key. RSA, developed in the late 1970s, is still widely used. It relies on a pair of keys, one to lock and one to unlock data.
Quantum computers could change everything. Unlike regular machines, they can perform incredibly complex calculations in a fraction of the time. This allows them to break RSA encryption, which would take classical computers centuries to crack.
Craig Gidney, one of the lead researchers at Google, has significantly revised his earlier projections. He now believes that a 1 million-qubit quantum computer could do the job, down from his previous estimate of 20 million qubits.
Gidney hopes the new findings will help guide the tech community in prioritizing quantum-safe systems. He agrees with the US National Institute of Standards and Technology, which has called for all vulnerable encryption systems to be phased out within five years.
“It’s not that I think quantum computers will exist by 2030,” Gidney explained. “It’s just better not to leave our security dependent on slow progress.”
Industry Response
The quantum threat is not news to some companies. Tuta Mail, for example, started developing its own quantum-resistant encryption back in 2020 and became the first email provider to launch a hybrid solution in 2024.
Matthias Pfau, CEO of Tuta, believes the latest research confirms what his team has been saying all along. “The time we have before today’s encrypted data becomes vulnerable might be much shorter than people realize,” he said.
NordVPN, which has already rolled out post-quantum encryption across all its apps, shares that urgency. CTO Marijus Briedis said the transition to quantum-safe cryptography is inevitable and planning should already be underway.
Surfshark’s Karolis Kaciulis agrees but cautions against trying to pin down a specific timeline. His team is still testing post-quantum encryption thoroughly before a full rollout.
At ExpressVPN, researchers have also been preparing for this shift. They introduced quantum-resistant features into their Lightway protocol in 2023 and updated it to meet NIST’s latest standards earlier this year.
Pete Membrey, Chief Research Officer, said the research is a good reminder of what is at stake but doesn’t change their approach. “Quantum computers will be able to decrypt data that was intercepted and stored years ago. That is why we need protections now.”
Proton, the company behind Proton VPN and Proton Mail, echoed this perspective. Their CTO Bart Butler said there is no need to panic, but there is a clear need to stay focused on building and adopting quantum-resistant technologies.